Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Walz and The Electoral Connection


(Walz meets with farmers while on the campaign trail)

The electoral connection is a theory proposed by David R. Mayhew. This theory states that congresspeople are all single minded seekers of reelection. 
The next couple of paragraphs will apply this theory to representative Walz in 3 different concepts; advertising, position taking, and credit claiming.

Advertising: Walz also uses his position in the house to get his name out to constituents. This month he is hosting a town hall meeting in Rochester, MN to meet with voters and to get his name out to the people of his district. He is meeting with these people to find out what issues interest them and to also find things that people want his to bring to congress. 
Name recognition is a huge desired for some people when it comes to voting. People vote for the people they know; so it makes sense that Walz wants to get his name out to them in the form of a town hall meeting. People are more likely to vote for him if they know who he is.

Position Taking: In a recent press release Walz called for a committee to be created in order to figure out Russia's involvement in the 2016 election. In doing this representative Walz is taking a stance against Russia. Most voters and the majority of America in his district would view this as a good stance to take. They would agree with Walz when he says "The American people not only deserve to know how the United States was attacked in the 2016 election but also who all is responsible for assault on the heart of our democratic institutions." The whole nation would agree that this issue needs to be figures out. John Mccain even said that this issue is bigger then "any single act of terror."
It is safe to say that when Walzs takes this stance he is keeping his constituents in mind and in turn the next election. He is going to use this stance to try and get votes.


Credit Claiming: Walz, being a veteran himself, has placed veteran care high on his list of issues. In 2015 Walz authored a bill that was designed to lower the rates of veteran suicide. This bill, called The Clay Hunt Suicide Prevention for American Veterans Act, passed by a vote of 99-0 in the senate and 403-0 in the house. There wasn't a single vote cast against this law. Walz has used this as an example to his constituents that he can get the job done, that he can reach across the aisle and make a bill that everyone can agree on.
Walz has used this bill as an example that he can get things done in congress. He wants his constituents to know that he authored a bill that passed this last legislative session. He is and will continue to try and get votes out of this situation.
Below is a photo of him (far right) attending an event at the White House where president Obama signed his bill into law.

Walz is also a member of the House Agriculture Committee. Being on this committee gives his great power over policy in the realm of farming. Since farming is a big industry in his district Walz is very committed to helping the industry with legislation. 
In 2014 he was ecstatic when he pushed a new farm bill through congress. This bill benefited farmers in his district. Walz has also used this as an example of him getting things done in congress. Just the year before in 2013 he voted to bring the bill to the floor of the house.
Walz has used the farm billed that was passed in 2014 as an example of him representing the people that voted him in. The bill directly benefits voters in his district. This will help him win votes among farmer and help him win the election.
The video below shows Walz addressing the House about what he calls a "broken" farm bill. This video proves that Walz is committed to issues in Agriculture.


Conclusion: Walz does things that his constituents want. He really makes an effort to understand the people that he is representing; this is evident in the town hall meetings that he hosts. He also then goes to work for the people that he represents; this is evident in the farm bill and the Clay Hunt Suicide Prevention Act. 
It is evident that Walz is doing this in order to get reelected (why else would he do these things that do not directly benefit him). This makes sense. The people elect him so he wants to take up the issues of the people that he represents in order to get a good result on election night.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Walz v. Hagedorn; Who Will be Victorious?


In election year of 2016 Tim Walz faced off against Jim Hagedorn.

2016 Results: 335,877 Total Votes
Walz: 169,074 votes (50.3%)
Hagedorn: 166,526 votes (49.6%)
Margin or Victory: 0.7%

Walz barely escaped the Democratic exodus that was happening across the country in the 2016 elections.

2016 Presidential Election: Walz endorsed Hillary Clinton in the election while Hagedorn endorsed Trump.
In the election Trump overwhelmingly won the district; his margin of victory in most counties was over 20%. Clinton only won one county in the whole district. 

Primary Outlook: Walz was unopposed in the primary and thus ended with 13,538 votes or 100% of the vote.

General Election Outlook: It is a safe bet that Hagedorn will be back again in 2018. If he does run it will be his 3rd try against Walz. 

Current Prediction: It would be safe to say that this next election is a toss up. With Hagedorn only losing by 0.7% of the vote, he will more then likely be back again to challenge Walz in 2018. It should also be noted that Walz usually wins by a lesser margin in midterm elections (2016 is the one exception), so 2018 may be a challenging election year for him.

Campaign Finance Status: Walz raised $1,547,890 in 2015-2016. During his campaign he spent $1,585,118. 

1. Kaplan Robins (law firm)
2. General Mills (food company)
3. Pohlad Companies (banking)
4. Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (union)
5. National Education Assn (union)

Sources: Individual Contributions $774,075 (50%)
PAC Contributions $773,720 (50%)

Issues: Walz campaigned on the issues of a clean energy future and the jobs that follow it, and he also emphasized the issue of workforce training. Along with those he also puts Veteran mental health and VA reform high on his list of issues.
Hagedorn was quoted in saying "I've been running on replacing Obamacare... securing our borders... weeding out excessive government and having things like regulatory reform at the federal level, so all those issues, those big national issues are now front and center in this campaign."

Monday, February 13, 2017

Minnesota's 1st District



Major Cities: Rochester (112,225 people) 
Mankato (41,044) 
Owatonna (25,725) 
Austin (24,563)
Winona (27,094)

Race: White, 608,338 (89%)
Latino, 41,507(6%)
Asian, 19,237(3%)
Black, 18,381(2%)

Income: Mean Household Income $72,973 (262,815 households)
Less then $10,000; 14,244 (5.5%)
$10,000-$14,999; 12,380 (5%)
$15,000-$24,999; 26,368 (10%)
$25,000-$34,999; 24,431(9%)
$35,000-$49,999; 37,071 (14%)
$50,000-$74,999; 52,644 (20%)
$75,000-$99,999; 38,672 (15%)
+$100,000; 57,005 (21.5%)
The income in this district is above the national average.

Age: Median Age 38.4
Under 5 years old; 42,202 (6%)
Age 5-14; 41,472 (13%)
15-24; 98,707 (15%)
25-34; 81,009(12%)
35-44; 75,759 (11%)
45-54; 85,449 (13%)
55-64; 90,802 (13.5%)
+65; 109,924 (16.5%)
No age group has a huge numbers advantage over the other.

Urban v. Rural: The population is spread out evenly over southern Minnesota, except for a few cities here and there. The political divide between these urban and rural areas is growing in the state of Minnesota (Star Tribune)

Major industries: If someone drove through southern MN, they would be able to look out the window and tell you a major industry. That industry is agriculture. Everyone is either a farmer or is related to a farmer.

Also, another major industry in this district is retail which takes up 11% of jobs. 

One industry doesn't totally dominate in this area besides farming.

Company: Taylor Corp; Helps business build better brands. Headquarters is located in Mankato
DuPont and Pioneer, seed and fertilizer company. Both hold great power in rural areas.

Party Affiliation: Before Walz was elected, this district was a red district. In order to win the election Walz has had to embrace the issues of the people; some of these issues go against the democratic party. He has not voted for any gun control bill and has a 100% rating from the NRA. He has also pushed for new farm bills that will benefit the farmers in his district.

2016 Election: Walz won reelextion by less then 3,000 votes.

This district voted for Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

The Sixth Term Congressman From Minnesota's 1st Congressional District; Tim Walz


Bio: He was born in West Point, Nebraska in 1964 and is currently 52 years old. His parents worked as a community activist and public school administrator. At a very young age they "instilled in him the values of hard work and community service."

Walz would go on to enlist in the coast guard at the age of 17. During his time in the coast guard he served with his battalion in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. He retired from service at the age of 24. Before retiring he had achieved the rank of Command Sergeant Major.

After retiring from the coast guard he went on to earn a B.S. in social science education from Chadron State College in Nebraska. He then taught in China from 1989-1990.

Upon returning to the United States, Walz took up a position teaching at a high school in Nebraska. He would meet his wife here. They would marry in 1994 and move to southern Minnesota. While in Minnesota he taught and coached at Mankato West High School. He would remain in Mankato until his decision to run for congress in 2006.

Family: Walz is married to his wife, Gwen, and has been together since 1994. Tim and Gwen have had two children together; Hope and Gus.

Religion: Christianity

Tenure: Walz has been representing Minnesota's first district since 2007. He is currently serving in his sixth congress.

Previous Elected Experience: None

Fun Fact: He is the highest ranking enlisted solider to ever serve in congress.

Committee Assignments: Agriculture, Armed Service, and Veteran's Affairs Committee

Sponsored Bills: Sportsmen's Conservation and Outdoor Recreation Enhancement Act
Clay Hunt SAV Act (suicide prevention for veterans)
Honor America's Guard-Reserve Retirees Act

ADA Rating: 70%

NRA Rating: 100%

American Civil Liberties Union Rating: 90%

NARAL Pro-Choice America Rating: 100%

Party Lines Crossed: Ranks fourth on bipartisan index

Leadership Position: Co-chair of Congressional Sportsman Caucus

Sources: https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/65443/tim-walz#.WJyXLDsrJEZ
https://walz.house.gov/about/full-biography
http://www.startribune.com/peterson-walz-break-party-line-vote-for-republican-student-loan-bill/149307175/
http://www.dglobe.com/news/4002870-working-across-party-lines-rep-walz-ranks-fourth-bipartisan-index